Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
